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Nature is angry; so is the public |
Dr Ghayur Ayub
MOTHER Nature and Pakistani public are angry — the former because of the human disrespect toward her and the latter for what the failing democracy is doing to them. Both are angry — very, very angry.For millennia, Nature has been working in her own coordinated but mysterious ways. According to ‘butterfly affect’; it can bring a tornado in Florida from flapping of a butterfly’s wing in Beijing. The unchecked industrial development in recent centuries has put this coordination in jeopardy. For example, a group of scientists links the devastating floods in Pakistan, the scorching forest fire in Russia, and the torrential rains in China with the man-made global warming. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this year is the warmest since reliable temperature records began in the mid-19th century. The shattering heat wave in Russia has brought the worst drought in decades which have disturbed world grain markets, driving wheat prices up at the fastest rate in more than 30 years. It made Vladimir Putin announced a grain export ban from August 15 to December 31. The heat wave also led to forest fires that have brought human miseries and death. The smoke from fires is likely to stoke global warming by hastening a thaw of Arctic ice causing unprecedented rains. It may also dust Himalayan glaciers with black soot that absorbs more heat than reflective snow and ice and so speeds a thaw causing floods in countries such as Pakistan. It is the same story in China, where nearly 1,500 people have died in mudslides and flooding caused by heavy rains due, primarily, to a build-up of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels by releasing the heat-trapping carbon dioxide. A second group of scientists, influenced by the corporate authorities and backed by American mindset do not agree with this theory. They say it is impossible to pin the blame solely on burning of fossil fuels. To support their view they argue that one cause of a shift in monsoon rains in Asia seem to be a knock-on effect of La Nina that causes natural cooling of the Pacific region thus clearing field for torrential rains. They also argue that El Nino-the male counterpart of La Nina, causes periods of dry spells and massive oceanic storms. They term the whole phenomenon as normal periodic turns of Nature. Coming under increasing pressure from the followers of this group, the U.S. Senate majority leader Harry Reid abandoned Climate Change Legislation July this year. One should remember that the United States, the number two largest greenhouse gas emitter behind China, is the only major industrialized nation with no law to cut emissions.It is ominous to see the corporate-backed scientists are working as double edged swords supporting projects which interfere in normal working of Nature on one hand and on the other hand blaming the normal phenomena of Nature to protect the man-made damaging tools. Crudely speaking, it muffles any difference between the mindset of these liberal scientists and the narrow minded Taliban. Both are twisting facts to suit their individual commitments for material gains by the former and religious satisfaction by the latter. No wonder the Taliban in Swat have been telling the flood victims that they have been punished by Allah for what they did to Taliban by supporting the infidels. Without pondering further over how the ultramodern scientists are construing the laws of Nature or how the conservative Taliban are interpreting the working of Allah; let me concentrate on the Nature-related floods in Pakistan and the consequences. According to a report, “The floods in Pakistan have been devastating. They’re “worse than the Southeast Asia tsunami and the Haiti earthquake.” Over 20 million people have been affected by the flooding, and several thousand have died. Villages that had yet to fully recover from a devastating 2005 earthquake have been essentially washed away. And the rain continues to pour, destroying more lives and keeping rescue efforts from proceeding. Food prices in Pakistan have quadrupled, making basic nutrition unattainable for many...Even after the rain stops in Pakistan; these tragic events will continue to pile up casualties from starvation and disease.” The democratic government so far, has not left a meaningful impression on the public as far as their day to day life is concern. They find that; the prices of normal commodities have soared; their income capacity has shrunken; the poverty has increased; their personal security has diminished; and communal despondency has mushroomed. On the government side, they see that; the good governance has vanished; its authority has melted; the corruption in its departments has multiplied; the law and order has disintegrated; and the terrorism has spiralled up. In a nutshell, the government lost its credibility, control and trust amongst the public. With this poor record, it is faced with having over 20 million people affected directly by the floods. The number sharply rises if one counts its indirect effects surpassing the number of critical mass required to bring a change in a society. The angry Nature has played its role to pinch the public where it hurts. It’s up to the democratic government to heal their physical wounds and emotional bruises. History tells us that in the devastation caused by WWII, Germany and Japan recovered well with help of the world community. But after poor implementation of the funds in post earthquake development projects, the world response this time seems lukewarm. Discussions have already started in print and electronic media in favour and against the results of relief provided to the earthquake victims. This time, the public will not take it lying down. After seeing the dismal response from the highest leadership during the initial days of the floods, the public sentiments have already steamed up. Soon, they will start shouting for food, water, shelter and basic amenities. The verbal promises by the leadership will not satisfy them. They will demand results. The vibrant media will be ready to project their anger and demands even with exaggeration. Would the government with its long list of poor record be able to satisfy them? This is the sixty four thousand dollar question. What will happen if the government fails? Would it be its downfall? If so; would there be a repeat of previous practices replacing one lethargic government with another civilian or military regime; or would it be different this time? And what would be the role of revived judiciary? Would it sit quietly and let the country take a nosedive? Many won’t agree with that. So what are the alternatives? A military takeover, a bloody revolution, or an unprecedented change spearheaded by Judiciary? The army is already overstretched in eliminating terrorism; so military takeover is unlikely. Possibly of bloody revolution cannot be excluded but there is no example in our history. This leaves us with the third option. Judiciary knows that it owes its revival to the public uprising and vast majority of the public expect judiciary to cleanse the rotten democratic system. It can oblige public wishes by installing a national government with help of the army; comprising of honest politicians, upright technocrats and competent civilians. The new setup will have the last chance to purify democracy through a bloodless change; by putting the country on post-flood development track (which should be seen as done); by cleansing the lower judiciary (the higher has already been cleansed); by pursuing the new and pending cases of people involved in corrupt practices from present or previous governments or non government institutions to legally conclusive ends; by recovering the stolen money in any form or shape from cheaters; by installing an honest and independent election commission; and by letting the army hunt the terrorists until the government writ in every part of the country is restored. It doesn’t matter how long it takes for the installed government to continue provided it shows the public that the job is properly done and it proves to the foreign governments and funding agencies that their funds are well spent. Let the people be the judges of the government in a real sense rather than vice versa as seen so far through sham democratic practices and engineered electioneering which ignored the public psyche. The ball is in the court of the government which is facing not only the angry public but also the irritated Mother Nature.
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Without a revolution, Americans are history |
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Paul Craig RobertsTHE United States is running out of time to get its budget and trade deficits under control. Despite the urgency of the situation, 2010 has been wasted in hype about a non-existent recovery. As recently as August 2 Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner penned a New York Times Column, “Welcome to the Recovery.”As John Williams (shadowstats.com) has made clear on many occasions, an appearance of recovery was created by over-counting employment and undercounting inflation. Warnings by Williams, Gerald Celente, and myself have gone unheeded, but our warnings recently had echo’s from Boston University professor Laurence Kotlikoff and from David Stockman, who excoriated the Republican Party for becoming big spending Democrats.It is encouraging to see a bit of realization that, this time, Washington cannot spend the economy out of recession. The deficits are already too large for the dollar to survive as reserve currency, and deficit spending cannot put Americans back to work in jobs that have been moved offshore.However, the solutions offered by those who are beginning to recognize that there is a problem are discouraging. Kotlikoff thinks the solution is massive Social Security and Medicare cuts or massive tax increases or hyperinflation to destroy the massive debts.Perhaps economists lack imagination, or perhaps they don’t want to be cut off from Wall Street and corporate subsidies, but Social Security and Medicare are insufficient at their present levels, especially considering the erosion of private pensions by the dot com, derivative and real estate bubbles. Cuts in Social Security and Medicare, for which people have paid 15% of their earnings all their life, would result in starvation and deaths from curable diseases.Tax increases make even less sense. It is widely acknowledged that the majority of households cannot survive on one job. Both husband and wife work and often one of the partners has two jobs in order to make ends meet. Raising taxes makes it harder to make ends meet–thus more foreclosures, more food stamps, more homelessness. What kind of economist or humane person thinks this is a solution?Ah, but we will tax the rich. The usual idiocy. The rich have enough money. They will simply stop earning.Let’s get real. Here is what the government is likely to do. Once the Washington idiots realize that the dollar is at risk and that they can no longer finance their wars by borrowing abroad, the government will either levy a tax on private pensions on the grounds that the pensions have accumulated tax-deferred, or the government will require pension fund managers to purchase Treasury debt with our pensions. This will buy the government a bit more time while pension accounts are loaded up with worthless paper.The last Bush budget deficit (2008) was in the $400-500 billion range, about the size of the Chinese, Japanese, and OPEC trade surpluses with the US. Traditionally, these trade surpluses have been recycled to the US and finance the federal budget deficit. In 2009 and 2010 the federal deficit jumped to $1,400 billion, a back-to-back trillion dollar increase. There are not sufficient trade surpluses to finance a deficit this large. From where comes the money?The answer is from individuals fleeing the stock market into “safe” Treasury bonds and from the bankster bailout, not so much the TARP money as the Federal Reserve’s exchange of bank reserves for questionable financial paper such as subprime derivatives. The banks used their excess reserves to purchase Treasury debt.These financing manoeuvres are one-time tricks. Once people have fled stocks, that movement into Treasuries is over. The opposition to the bankster bailout likely precludes another. So where does the money come from the next time?The Treasury was able to unload a lot of debt thanks to “the Greek crisis,” which the New York banksters and hedge funds multiplied into “the euro crisis.” The financial press served as a financing arm for the US Treasury by creating panic about European debt and the euro. Central banks and individuals who had taken refuge from the dollar in euros were panicked out of their euros, and they rushed into dollars by purchasing US Treasury debt.This movement from euros to dollars weakened the alternative reserve currency to the dollar, halted the dollar’s decline, and financed the massive US budget deficit a while longer.Possibly the game can be replayed with Spanish debt, Irish debt, and whatever unlucky country swept in by the thoughtless expansion of the European Union.But when no countries remain that can be destabilized by Wall Street investment banksters and hedge funds, what then finances the US budget deficit?— (Opinion Maker)The only remaining financier is the Federal Reserve. When Treasury bonds brought to auction do not sell, the Federal Reserve must purchase them. The Federal Reserve purchases the bonds by creating new demand deposits, or checking accounts, for the Treasury. As the Treasury spends the proceeds of the new debt sales, the US money supply expands by the amount of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of Treasury debt.Do goods and services expand by the same amount? Imports will increase as US jobs have been offshored and given to foreigners, thus worsening the trade deficit. When the Federal Reserve purchases the Treasury’s new debt issues, the money supply will increase by more than the supply of domestically produced goods and services. Prices are likely to rise.How high will they rise? The longer money is created in order that government can pay its bills, the more likely hyperinflation will be the result.The economy has not recovered. By the end of this year it will be obvious that the collapsing economy means a larger than $1.4 trillion budget deficit to finance. Will it be $2 trillion? Higher?Whatever the size, the rest of the world will see that the dollar is being printed in such quantities that it cannot serve as reserve currency. At that point wholesale dumping of dollars will result as foreign central banks try to unload a worthless currency.The collapse of the dollar will drive up the prices of imports and offshored goods on which Americans are dependent. Wal-Mart shoppers will think they have mistakenly gone into Neiman Marcus.Domestic prices will also explode as a growing money supply chases the supply of goods and services still made in America by Americans.The dollar as reserve currency cannot survive the conflagration. When the dollar goes the US cannot finance its trade deficit. Therefore, imports will fall sharply, thus adding to domestic inflation and, as the US is energy import-dependent, there will be transportation disruptions that will disrupt work and grocery store deliveries.Panic will be the order of the day.Will farms will be raided? Will those trapped in cities resort to riots and looting?Is this the likely future that “our” government and “our patriotic” corporations have created for us?To borrow from Lenin, “What can be done?”Here is what can be done. The wars, which benefit no one but the military-security complex and Israel’s territorial expansion, can be immediately ended. This would reduce the US budget deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars per year. More hundreds of billions of dollars could be saved by cutting the rest of the military budget, which in its present size, exceeds the budgets of all the serious military powers on earth combined.US military spending reflects the unaffordable and unattainable crazed neoconservative goal of US Empire and world hegemony. What fool in Washington thinks that China is going to finance US hegemony over China?The only way that the US will again have an economy is by bringing back the offshored jobs. The loss of these jobs impoverished Americans while producing over-sized gains for Wall Street, shareholders, and corporate executives. These jobs can be brought home where they belong by taxing corporations according to where value is added to their product. If value is added to their goods and services in China, corporations would have a high tax rate. If value is added to their goods and services in the US, corporations would have a low tax rate.This change in corporate taxation would offset the cheap foreign labour that has sucked jobs out of America, and it would rebuild the ladders of upward mobility that made America an opportunity society.If the wars are not immediately stopped and the jobs brought back to America, the US is relegated to the trash bin of history.Obviously, the corporations and Wall Street would use their financial power and campaign contributions to block any legislation that would reduce short-term earnings and bonuses by bringing jobs back to Americans. Americans have no greater enemies than Wall Street and the corporations and their prostitutes in Congress and the White House.The neocons allied with Israel, who control both parties and much of the media, are strung out on the ecstasy of Empire.The United States and the welfare of its 300 million people cannot be restored unless the neocons, Wall Street, the corporations, and their servile slaves in Congress and the White House can be defeated.Without a revolution, Americans are history. (Opinion Maker)
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Pakistan: Blessed or discarded? |
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Abdul Jabbar KhanAS the country passes through the worst of its historic flood devastation, President of Pakistan Asif Zardari has called upon the people of Pakistan to be sincere in endeavoring towards their best of efforts for rehabilitation. We have been selected by God Almighty and are chosen one for serving the people who need immediate help for rescue, relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Having a sizeable economic pressure since the flood is over, the survey would certainly help reaching an assessment of the worst situation as tens of thousands of houses, tube wells, live crops and cattle have been swept away while hundreds of persons have died. Those rescued by armed forces are facing food shortage as the National Disaster Management has not been found equipped with such a devastating flood which was never recorded in terms of water flow and damages to almost all the provinces and Northern Areas of Gilgit-Baltistan. President, Prime Minister and Army Chief are all doing their best while the provincial governments too are delivering goods and services to the affected community.The government has its own limitations and trust deficit has been quoted even by the United Nations senior officials, however people of Pakistan have the capability, courage and will to devote themselves for the good of their brethren who have been the victims of such flood waters. It would take years to reach to usual life and restoring the agriculture sector. All water courses and tube wells have been submerged in heavy water and floods still passing through in different barrages. The threat is not over and would take some more time to see the rivers flow in usual levels and the restoration of land is started. So far the humanitarian assistance and relief is the priority where the international community is there to help with all they commit for the welfare of the marooned persons. The friendly countries have their will to extend all possible support and even the aid has started pouring in. The aircrafts are approaching Pakistani airports from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, USA, China and other countries who have announced their relief support however the cash assistance is also in the pipeline. The Pakistani community abroad has also realized the size of losses and is likely to reach to help their countrymen.The national efforts are badly desired putting aside party differences and political point scoring. The government should announce the commission for rehabilitation and restoration of the flooded area; however the delay is on the part of the government. Gilani has limitations but whatever he assured the opposition chief should be honoured and a neutral person of calibre and repute be deputed as head of the commission which should lead all related work of relief, restoration of land and agriculture rehabilitation, housing reconstruction, subsidies and tax waivers to the affected areas. This should be a priority without any further delay as in case of further loss of life and property people do have the right to be feeling desperate at the hands of the present rulers who have not changed their lavish style of spending and governance. All savings be diverted and non-development expenditure be curtailed and not the development allocation. The reconstruction needs development and the expenditure on non-development avenues need to be revised. One may call himself that he has been chosen by God to serve the people, let the masses decide as who has served the humanity be one is chosen or is known to be an ordinary person. The chosen persons are now over and let those who have some good hearts they should be asked to lead such relief work which is a national obligation. Every Pakistani has the responsibility to discharge at his own level.
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